Book Shelf 24-8 ~ Gambling and War: Risk, Reward, and Chance in International Conflict (Justin Conrad, Naval Institute Press, 2017)

Judging from the title alone, one might be tempted to think of Gambling and War: Risk, Reward, and Chance in International Conflict by Justin Conrad as just another game theory in international relations book. Not so fast. Both wargamers and wargame practitioners would very likely benefit from reading Gambling and War.

Conrad points out that, when leader are faced with making optimal choices, they face strategic and cognitive challenges…as well as chance. As they point out, “even the most intelligent and rational actors are still defeated by chance” (Conrad, p.180).

In a line that strongly resonates with the grognard in me, later in Gambling and War Conrad backtracks a bit on that “defeated by chance” assertion and clarifies that, “While we have focused on the complications caused by cognitive errors, as well as randomness, it is important to emphasize that strategy still works” (Conrad, p. 183). They go on to quote a professional gambler who related:

For what is true of any war, or any endeavor in life for that matter, is also true of gambling—winning is a combination of timing, skill, and luck. But luck favors those who have the skill and timing. Luck favors the prepared.

Conrad, pp. 183-184

As a wargamer, I recognize that luck is “part of the game” but seek ways to manage its impact. I constantly try to use strategy and tactics to shape the battle in my favor; to prepare for the unexpected and mitigate—or even take advantage of—its impact. Conrad puts into words my own thoughts behind why I wargame when they state, “One reason the ‘prepared’ actor benefits more is that experience and skill allow them to acknowledge and successfully manage the risk generated through randomness” (Conrad, p. 184). Expounding on the usefulness of strategy they go on to say:

Ultimately, though, strategy has a role to play. And under many circumstances, sticking to basic strategic principles is the most useful approach. Some of the best poker players know that while it is important to consider a variety of factors, sometimes it is more beneficial to “abandon psychology altogether and rely on game theory.”

Conrad, p. 185

Wargame practitioners could also find Gambling and War very helpful when developing and analyzing the outcome of “serious” war games. Conrad makes an example of the 2015 war game Hegemon ran by the Potomac Foundation that simulated a conflict in the South China Sea (thepotamacfoundation.org is a dead link but PAXSims helpfully captured the highlights).

From the outcome of the many iterations of Hegemon Conrad notes:

While the game was specifically designed to capture the strategic aspect of decisionmaking in such a scenario, the way the game unfolded demonstrates how complex and unpredictable such situations can be. Although the basic parameters of the game were relatively simple (and can be used to simulate any kind of international situation), “just as in real life, events build upon themselves like fractals. Players bluff and second-guess others’ intentions, alliances are formed and broken and decisions made in a fog of uncertainty.” This kind of complexity means that there is room for cognitive errors and random events to take over the course of the game, and the outcomes are a testament to this complexity. Participants actually played many iterations, and the outcomes varied widely from one game to the next. In half the games played, the result was violent conflict, while in the other half, the crisis did not lead to war. In other words, if we were tempted to use the results of the games to predict real-life outcomes under such circumstances, the game is no more useful than, say, flipping a coin. While unpredictability is a feature of all international relations, it is particularly true of circumstances such as those simulated in the game, where stakes are high and decisionmakers do not have time to reflect on their choices. Recall that as stakes increase in poker games, players’ behavior can become unpredictable as they risk increasing sums of money, even on marginal hands. But the Hegemon game should be a cautionary tale for those claiming to predict where conflict will happen next, how it will play out, or how it will end. Even a simple game with clear parameters is difficult, if not impossible, to predict. How can we hope to accurately predict the outcomes of real-life conflict situations, which are infinitely more complicated and involve aspects completely unknown to the participants?

Conrad, pp. 182-183

Recommended.

Citations

Conrad, J. (2017) Gambling and War: Risk, Reward, and Chance in International Conflict. Annapolis: Naval Institute Press.

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